The Great Depression Ahead How to Prosper in the Crash Following the Greatest Boom in History

The first and last economic depression that you will experience in your lifetime is just ahead. The year 2009 will be the beginning of the next long-term winter season and the initial end of prosperity in almost every market, ushering in a downturn like most of us have not experienced before. Are you aware that we have seen long-term peaks in our stock market and economy very close to every 40 years due to generational spending trends: as in 1929, 1968, and next around 2009? Are you aware that oil and commodity prices have peaked nearly every 30 years, as in 1920, 1951, 1980 — and next likely around late 2009 to mid-2010? The three massive bubbles that have been booming for the last few decades — stocks, real estate, and commodities — have all reached their peak and are deflating simultaneously.

Bestselling author and renowned economic forecaster Harry S. Dent, Jr., has observed these trends for decades. As he first demonstrated in his bestselling The Great Boom Ahead, he has developed analytical techniques that allow him to predict the impact they will have. The Great Depression Ahead explains “The Perfect Storm” as peak oil prices collide with peaking generational spending trends by 2010, leading to a more severe downtrend for the global economy and individual investors alike.

He predicts the following:

• The economy appears to recover from the subprime crisis and minor recession by mid-2009 — “the calm before the real storm.”

• Stock prices start to crash again between mid- and late 2009 into late 2010, and likely finally bottom around mid-2012 — between Dow 3,800 and 7,200.

• The economy enters a deeper depression between mid-2010 and early 2011, likely extending off and on into late 2012 or mid-2013.

• Asian markets may bottom by late 2010, along with health care, and be the first great buy opportunities in stocks.

• Gold and precious metals will appear to be a hedge at first, but will ultimately collapse as well after mid- to late 2010.

• A first major stock rally, likely between mid-2012 and mid-2017, will be followed by a final setdback around late 2019/early 2020.

• The next broad-based global bull market will be from 2020-2023 into 2035-2036.

Conventional investment wisdom will no longer apply, and investors on every level — from billion-dollar firms to the individual trader — must drastically reevaluate their policies in order to survive. But despite the dire news and dark predictions, there are real opportunities to come from the greatest fire sale on financial assets since the early 1930s. Dent outlines the critical issues that will face our government and other major institutions, offering long- and short-term tactics for weathering the storm. He offers recommendations that will allow families, businesses, investors, and individuals to manage their assets correctly and come out on top. With the right knowledge and preparation, you can take advantage of new wealth opportunities rather than get caught in a downward spiral. Your life is about to change for reasons outside of your control. You can’t change the direction of the winds, but you can reset your sails!

User Ratings and Reviews

3 Stars Why Dent’s method is flawed
I read his book in detail and try to use some data set from British Colombia to gauge housing demand in Vancouver. However, I found his method is flawed:

1. Key logic flaw: percentage of buyer age group in home buyer survey by National Association of Realtors doesn’t mean “typical” buying age or the possibility of buying home at different age. The original logic process of Dent is: sampled buyer age distribution infers actual buyer age distribution (correct!); then, most buyer is at age X (or any distribution) infers most people buys home at age X (or at age X people is most likely to buy home, wrong! This induction/generalization might not be true). A simple negative example is that there could be more people in age group X demographically, so there are more buyer at age X when the survey was carried out! To get the likelihood of buying a home at different age group, we need to divide percentage of buyer age group by its percentage of demographic age group (row 9), and then normalize the result (row 10), which is the possibility of buying home at different age group in people’s life at the time of that survey. We need to get series of survey spanning multiple decades to see if there is any behavioral change – note, not only buyer survey, but also demographic at the time of survey.

2. Peak vs. distribution. It might be easy for Dent to use peak data (or median age data), and then he got a very dramatic cyclical potential buyer curve. However, if we use distribution data, esp. when the possibility of buying home scatters across major age group after age 35, the result potential buyer curve is far less dramatic – I think this result is more reasonable, as we should look aggregate demand, not demand of certain age group (or only median age). The aggregate demand across different age group smooths the demand curve.

3. Survey data are important assumptions. First, we need enough historical survey data (across decades, and with demographical data) to profile home buying behavior in different age; second, we need enough confident that this behavior will persist in future – this could be a leap of faith, because many external factors (other than family, kids – internal factors or demographical factors) affects the conversion of home buying desire to actual home buying activity. Such factors are: mortgage rate, unemployment rate, people’s expectation of future house price, etc. Dent did little research on the sensitivity of his model/method to these external factors.

In conclusion, I think Dent’s method is one good way of thinking potential demand (demographically), but might not be that sound and analytical as it appears to be. I think it makes sense only for long term trend (10+ years), but it has little predication power for peak or trough at precision of year, when I think external factors plays larger role than internal/demographical factors. It certainly makes the method even less credible when he includes some ” 500 years civilization cycle”

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2 Stars A good reference book
When I purchased this book I didn’t believe that anyone could predict the future and after reading it I still don’t. However Mr. Dent has compiled a good set of data that indicates that most events occur in cycles periodically and can be used to help see the future. I accept this premise and believe that we all need to make our own predictions for the future. The Great Depression Ahead book can serve as a good source of information for this task. This is what Dent has done and is now predicting the upcoming downfall of the economy in the US and world wide which makes sense to me. Aside from everything else our current administration is destroying our previous system and thus ensuring a big depression in the near future. /DaveB

1 Star Historian, Yes. Prophet, No. How To Chase The Markets
Mr. Dent could be right this time around.

I bought and read some of Mr. Dent’s prior books. Two were

“The Roaring 2000s” and “The Roaring 2000s Investor.”

He prophesied one could build wealth and lifestyle you

desire in the greatest boom in history (this was essentially

the subtitle to the first tome mentioned.)

What happened? Two meltdowns in the stock market not so long

after he published the books. My guess is he added considerably

to his own wealth by hyping the facts.. If he had predicted those

disasters, he might be more credible now.

To me, the prospects for a depression do seem ripe. Thankfully,

Mr. Dent has an UN-prophetic track record. This give me hope

that his predictions might continue to be wrong!

To be fair, Mr. Dent might be right this time. Even a stopped

clock is exactly right twice a day.

1 Star Saving the money you would have spent on this is better financial advice than whats in this book.
I wanted a book that had advice for what to do in a down turn, but this book offers basically nothing. There are a couple of “duhuhs,” but basically it’s all garbage. I knew the moment this turkey started mentioning global warming and other brainless propaganda that this thing was going to be worthless, but I went through the whole thing anyway. I wish now that I could get those hours of my life back.

Anyway, to keep from repeating what others have already written, you can read the other comments from anyone else who gave this book 1 star.

Let me give you the wrap up of this useless book though.

1) There may be a big depression sometime between now and mid 2010.

2) It may last until 2020+, but the worst will be over by the early 20-teens.

3) Buy T-Bills – That’s right, that’s the highlight of the advice he gives.

Save your money and skip this useless book.

1 Star Should Be Classified as Fiction
I picked up “The Great Depression Ahead” from the display of new Non-Fiction books at my local library. I’ve never read any of Harry S. Dent’s books, and I thought that it wouldn’t hurt to get another person’s forecast of where we’re headed financially from here. After all, if someone can make a strong case based on evidence that makes sense, why not keep an open mind until you evaluate his facts?

The books is easy to read. Unfortunately, the “facts” in the book are based on very weak (or non-existent) evidence. For example, one of his basic tenants is that events tend to happen in regular cycles, say every 30 years, 40 years, etc. I’m willing to accept that theory, but not based just on a graph that shows only the last two cycles. Show me at least 4 or 5 cycles if you want me to believe! This happens time and time again, and if I can’t believe the initial “proofs” I certainly can’t believe the predictions that he draws from them. In addition, the book is VERY repetitious- it repeats the same things over and over again. The whole thing could have been written in 1/3rd the number of pages.

You may or may not believe in things like the “peak oil” theory (which is NOT part of Dent’s book), but at least those who propose ideas like that give you lots and lots of sources and references that can be independently checked and verified. “The Great Depression Ahead” asks you to take a great leap of faith and “trust” its assumptions when you look at the future through the glass darkly. Mr. Dent may or may not be right about his predictions, but in any case they’re not based on facts. You might enjoy reading this book, but it belongs in the “Fiction” classification.

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